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Gold Price Analysis

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Thursday, November 4th, 2010

Spot Gold Price 4 Nov 2010

Yesterday’s candle on the daily gold spot chart gave us a strong signal once again that the bullish sentiment for the commodity remains firmly in place with the low of the day bouncing off the 40 day moving average and subsequently recovering to hold above both the 9 and 14 day averages once again. The impetus for gold prices was duly delivered by the FED last night which has subsequently seen gold prices surge towards fresh, record highs as the precious metal trades at time of writing fractionally below the $1386.82 all time high at $1383.20 per ounce. The recent re-tracement, and subsequent sideways consolidation, has now produced a strong platform of support and, as such, this will no doubt provide the springboard for a sustained move higher as we move towards our year end target of $1450 per ounce and thereafter, possibly a longer term trend towards $1650 and beyond. The 9 day moving average has now crossed back above the 14 day average giving us a further bull signal and with the longer term moving averages now inclining sharply higher, the long term outlook for spot gold remains firmly bullish.

Commodities rally on back of weaker dollar

Daily Gold Price

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Monday, October 25th, 2010

Gold Spot Price 25 Oct 2010

The slide in the spot gold price appears to have come to an end this morning as normal service has once again been resumed following the conclusion of the G20 meeting at the weekend in Korea. The net result is that further dollar weakness is expected in the short to medium term and as a result we are likely to see a recovery for commodities, including gold, as the metals recover lost ground following last week’s surprise announcement from the Chinese. Friday’s small hammer candle suggested a temporary pause point in the slide which has been confirmed in this morning’s early gold trading with the spot gold price opening gapped up at $1332.60 to trade at time of writing at $1339.63, having touched an intra day high of $1349.00. The key for this week will be a break and hold above the 9 and 14 day moving averages which currently reside at $1351.55 and $1349.60 respectively, and once above these two, we can expect a return to test the all time high of $1386.82 in due course. The 40 day average was untested in last week’s retracement and, as such, continues to provide and excellent platform of support to the longer term trend, as does the 200 day.

Theft hits gold production at African Barrick

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Spot Gold Analysis 20 Oct 2010

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Wednesday, October 20th, 2010

Spot Gold 20 Oct 2010

The spot gold price sold off sharply yesterday, along with many other metals in the commodity market, such as copper and silver with crude oil also reacting to the news that China had surprisingly increased its interest rates by 0.25% – news which surprised the markets, driving the US dollar higher as a result. Moreover, the long awaited correction in spot gold duly arrived with a wide spread down candle which closed below both the 9 and 14 moving averages on the daily gold chart. The question is now, of course, whether this now represents a fundamental shift in sentiment or is merely a short term correction. From a fundamental perspective a rise in Chinese interest rates, whilst interesting, is hardly a sentiment changing event and the only reason for the reaction was that the news was not scheduled and therefore caught the markets off guard. Had this been a scheduled announcement and released as such, then the market reaction would have been more muted. As such we can therefore assume that the status quo will be reinstated shortly with the dollar falling lower in due course and commodities regaining yesterday’s lost ground as investors see an opportunity of buying into the market at lower prices, which appears to be happening already in the gold market, as we trade off yesterday’s lows at $1340.50 at time of writing. From a technical perspective we need to see a break and hold back above the 9 day moving average which currently sits at $1356.90 and once clear of this level then a re-test of the all time high of $1386.82 per ounce will become increasingly likely. Despite yesterday’s sharp pull back the longer term moving averages remain firmly positive and in due course this will be seen as a temporary pull back in the longer term bullish trend.

Commodity prices rally after correction

Spot Gold Analysis 18 Oct 2010

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Monday, October 18th, 2010

Spot Gold 18 Oct 2010

Spot gold prices paused for breath on Friday staging a modest pullback from the high of $1385.10 and ending as a narrow spread down candle with small wicks to both top and bottom. Friday’s high just failed to breach the all time for high of $1386.82 achieved on Thursday. This mildly bearish mood on the spot gold chart has carried over into this morning’s early gold trading session, following the rally for the US dollar, but so far spot gold has rallied from the morning low of $1353 per ounce to trade at time of writing at $1366.62. As such, this is now increasingly resembling a short term reversal as the gold market takes a breather from its longer term trend and traders bank profits on a relatively quiet day for fundamental news. It is interesting to note from a technical perspective that today’s low found strong support from the 9 day moving average immediately below, confirming once again that the bullish trend remains firmly in place for the commodity. The longer term weekly chart merely mirrors this analysis and there are no technical signals to suggest that the spot gold price is likely to reverse in any significant way in the near future.

African Barrick shares sink as criminals infiltrate mines

Spot Gold 13 Oct 2010

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Wednesday, October 13th, 2010

Spot Gold 13 Oct 2010

Spot gold continues its relentless climb higher today breaking yet again in new high ground having opened the trading session at $1350.10 to trade at time of writing at $1369.50, marginally below the high of the day of $1373.85 per ounce. The early part of the week was characterised by relative inactivity in spot gold as the gold market consolidated ahead of Tuesday’s key release of the FED minutes and the surge in the metal today has been largely fuelled by the fundamental news contained in this statement which in simple terms confirmed that quantitative easing will commence by the end of the month. The net result of this policy in broad terms will be a further dramatic weakening of the US dollar and a consequent rise in bonds, equities and commodities. Gold, in particular, along with silver is likely to be one of the main beneficiaries as investors seek concrete assets, moving away from paper based investments which are likely to suffer as the currency wars escalate further with central banks around the world devaluing their currencies in an effort to support their export markets.

From a technical perspective the longer term outlook for gold remains strongly bullish and indeed Goldman Sachs have revised their forecast for spot gold higher to $1650 per ounce by early next year. My own forecast is slightly more modest, at around $1450 per ounce, but either way, the trend higher is extremely well established with both the 9 and 14 day moving averages providing platforms of support during any temporary pullback as was evidenced in Monday & Tuesday’s gold trading session. The 200 day moving average on the daily chart is now sloping higher providing us with a further confirmatory signal that the longer term trend is set to continue for some time to come.

Gold – another record high

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Archive for gold prices – Page 2

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Spot Gold Analysis 20 Oct 2010

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