Spot Gold Prices - Gold Price Chart 6th July 2009

With the US markets closed on Friday for the 4th of July celebrations spot gold prices were completely moribund hardly moving out of a very narrow trading range.  The question now facing traders and investors is how the markets are likely to unfold in the second half of 2009.  Market players appear divided as to whether the next 6 months will be characterized by further deflation or whether the first sparks of inflation will begin to take hold, and the clues as to which is likely to be more dominant lies in both gold prices and the performance of the US Dollar.   From a technical perspective Friday’s doji candle closed below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages suggesting once again that despite the holiday on Friday the tone for gold prices is looking bearish, and now seems to be more aligned with spot silver in this respect.  Indeed in this morning’s early trading, and following moves back in the safe haven status of the US dollar as a result of the truly awful NFP figures, risk aversion appears to be the order of the day with the price of gold falling as a consequence.   The technical key to how deep this move will be will largely depend on the strength of any support levels of which the $900 per ounce price point is the first.  Should gold prices breach this price level then we may even be looking at a much deeper move, possibly as far as the $850 to $870 price point.   With this week’s G8 summit likely to cause a degree of market mayhem and the likes of Jean Claude Trichet “talking up” the dollar should the dollar continue to strengthen then this will offer us a number of trades to the short side.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $929.35 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $958.20 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $917.85 (low of 22/06/09)                                  Resistance: $941.10 (high of 02/07/09)

Support:    $912.70 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $934.32 (Friday’s high)